I’m not going to waste my time doing a typical box office breakdown this week, when the only movie that’s going to get talked about is The Marvels. So let’s just cut to the chase: this was a disastrous opening weekend for the Captain Marvel sequel. It broke a 15-year MCU low record with just $47M domestic, and $110M worldwide. Ouch.
The stateside number follows a $21M opening day/preview night, which is so far on the weak side it’s unimaginable this is from the same Marvel Studios that dropped nearly $300M months ago for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3‘s debut.
But the wide disparity is sorta the point. Hear me out. Because if there’s anything I immediately dismiss it’s the “superhero fatigue” claim that so many lazy analysts like to throw around. It’s not that fans are tired of superhero movies, or Marvel flicks in particular. They just have a wider selection to choose from, and thus are more discerning in what they pay to see.
For example, fans clearly did not want another Ant-Man movie. You could make the point that two previous movies with average box office told Marvel that, and they simply didn’t listen. So when Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania ended its run with just $476M, a franchise low, absolutely nobody was shocked. On the other hand, Marvel fans have loved Guardians of the Galaxy from the beginning and were eager to show up for the bittersweet swansong, taking it to $845M globally.
In the case of The Marvels, it follows 2019’s $1B-grossing Captain Marvel. That film saw Brie Larson take charge in the first solo Marvel film with a female lead, and that drove excitement and attendance. However, the movie wasn’t an instant favorite, and there wasn’t a ton of clamor for a sequel. Marvel tried to get around that by making this one an all-girl-jam, adding Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau, and popular Ms. Marvel star Iman Vellani. My gut tells me financials would be even worse if Vellani, who everyone seems to love, hadn’t been in the movie. Still, Marvel struggled to promote the film beyond its “Freaky Friday” plotline, and a desperate, generic superhero trailer released just days before opening was proof of that. Larson made the rounds, as well, to drum up support but to no avail.
The critical response to The Marvels has been as polarizing as I said it would be. It only recently flipped from “rotten” to “fresh” with 63% at Rotten Tomatoes, while general audiences have given it an 85% which is pretty good. Personally, I enjoyed it quite a lot and think people are judging it too harshly. I’m about to go see it again with a few friends in just a couple of hours.
At a budget of $200M+, The Marvels is a flop and a half. Disney/Marvel is already in the process of retooling, with fewer Disney+ shows to satiate fans and to make each release feel more special. There’s only one movie scheduled to open in 2024, and that should offer time to figure out a path forward that rekindles the creative spark of the MCU’s first decade. Because that’s where the real problem is. Marvel has been in a creative rut, and the fans aren’t energized by what’s being offered. Get that fixed, and trust me, the huge box office numbers will come roaring back. [numbers via Deadline]
